Nick, delighted to have you on substack. Big fan of your work for awhile. These mailbag posts are quickly becoming must-reads (along with your other critical reporting). Just wanted to say thank you!
Nick, Interesting that your thoughts on the 3pm blackout don't consider the impact on Non-League clubs. As a fan of a Southern League club 5 miles from an EPL ground the difference in our crowds when we both play at home on the same day is huge. When they are away, the fans come to watch us instead; you can see them all in their AFCB clothing. It's usually between 50-100 more on the attendance.
If they can watch them play away games at home, in the warm, they will stop coming to watch us. This equates to around £30k a year through the gate and in ground spending. That's the kind of money that puts small clubs out of business. An end to the blackout could decimate Non-League.
Fair point Carl. I totally get that. But as you say, when you're at home the same day, your crowds are down because people are watching the other game live instead of yours. I think (and I might be wrong, I often am) that match-going fans will generally be match-going fans when they can. But absolutely take on board what you're saying.
Nick, what is the rough calculation for the broadcast revenue from a PremFlix service vs traditional media. Appreciate this is tricky given the potential for ad revenue on a PremFlix service. Plus I’d imagine the traditional broadcast media up their bids should this become a reality. I can’t imagine we would need to pay anything like the £100+pm we do now to watch games we don’t get a choice in.
Hi Dan, very near to the bottom of the PremFlix item is a link to a video by Tifo (the video brand of The Athletic) which explores all this. I wrote the script for that video. I make the case in that video that 200m people / households around the world already pay for pay-TV services that provide them with live PL games. It’s obviously purely hypothetical and there are lots of hurdles to overcome but if those 200m people paid just £10 a month for a dedicated PremFlix that gives them so many more game for so much less money, then PL broadcast revenues would jump to £24bn a year, or about 8 times as much as now.
Wowzer! I expected it to be more like £20. I suppose the initial set up costs would be significant. I’d suggest if fans had a vote the majority would support a service.
Yeah set-up would be costly. That’s why I think when it happens, not before 2029 and perhaps not until later, it will be a joint venture between the PL and an established digital entity with a global infrastructure and customer base already established, whether that’s AppleTV or DAZN or some company that doesn’t yet exist. As for pricing a tenner gets you potentially £24bn in revs but they would price at what they think the market can stand - higher in some places, lower in others
Nick, delighted to have you on substack. Big fan of your work for awhile. These mailbag posts are quickly becoming must-reads (along with your other critical reporting). Just wanted to say thank you!
Thank you SO much.
Is it just UK football that is banned at 3pm Saturday? Or all football?
UK football. Obvs all leagues play when they want, and if you're in the UK you can, for example, watch live Bundesliga on TV in that timeslot.
Thanks. I wasn’t sure they did that. For example no games today.
Nick, Interesting that your thoughts on the 3pm blackout don't consider the impact on Non-League clubs. As a fan of a Southern League club 5 miles from an EPL ground the difference in our crowds when we both play at home on the same day is huge. When they are away, the fans come to watch us instead; you can see them all in their AFCB clothing. It's usually between 50-100 more on the attendance.
If they can watch them play away games at home, in the warm, they will stop coming to watch us. This equates to around £30k a year through the gate and in ground spending. That's the kind of money that puts small clubs out of business. An end to the blackout could decimate Non-League.
Fair point Carl. I totally get that. But as you say, when you're at home the same day, your crowds are down because people are watching the other game live instead of yours. I think (and I might be wrong, I often am) that match-going fans will generally be match-going fans when they can. But absolutely take on board what you're saying.
Nick, what is the rough calculation for the broadcast revenue from a PremFlix service vs traditional media. Appreciate this is tricky given the potential for ad revenue on a PremFlix service. Plus I’d imagine the traditional broadcast media up their bids should this become a reality. I can’t imagine we would need to pay anything like the £100+pm we do now to watch games we don’t get a choice in.
Hi Dan, very near to the bottom of the PremFlix item is a link to a video by Tifo (the video brand of The Athletic) which explores all this. I wrote the script for that video. I make the case in that video that 200m people / households around the world already pay for pay-TV services that provide them with live PL games. It’s obviously purely hypothetical and there are lots of hurdles to overcome but if those 200m people paid just £10 a month for a dedicated PremFlix that gives them so many more game for so much less money, then PL broadcast revenues would jump to £24bn a year, or about 8 times as much as now.
Wowzer! I expected it to be more like £20. I suppose the initial set up costs would be significant. I’d suggest if fans had a vote the majority would support a service.
Thanks Nick. Very interesting. I’ll have more Q’s on lots of different sports!
Yeah set-up would be costly. That’s why I think when it happens, not before 2029 and perhaps not until later, it will be a joint venture between the PL and an established digital entity with a global infrastructure and customer base already established, whether that’s AppleTV or DAZN or some company that doesn’t yet exist. As for pricing a tenner gets you potentially £24bn in revs but they would price at what they think the market can stand - higher in some places, lower in others