Who wins the closest title race in PL history? The data reveals all...
I looked to OPTA, the betting markets, the history books and the form guide to parse a run-in closer than any in the modern era
There has never been a Premier League title race as close as this. In today’s post I’m going to show exactly why this one is marginally tighter than the best of the rest, and I’ll aggregate different data sources to tell you who the numbers say will win the 2024 Premier League title.
With 10 games remaining, a single point separates the top three ahead of the next round of matches (all three top-three clubs play on Sunday March 31).
Arsenal top the Premier League on goal difference from Liverpool, both of them with 64 points from 28 games and 10 to play, while Manchester City are just one point back on 63 points.
It was almost as tight in 2001-02, when Manchester United and Arsenal both had 57 points after 28 games, and Newcastle had 55 points. Liverpool had 53 points after 28 games, then played their 29th game before the others, which meant on the evening of March 2, 2002, the table had United and Arsenal on 57 points, Liverpool on 56 and Newcastle on 55.
Arsenal then won all of their last 10 matches and won the title on 87 points, clinching in their penultimate game, a 1-0 win at Old Trafford that United had to win to take the race to the final day. Liverpool won 24 points from their last nine games to finish as runners-up on 80 points, with United in third on 77 and Newcastle fourth on 70.
In 2009-10 it was also close. Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal were very much in a three-way title race after 28 games, but again there were a couple of points between them with 10 matches to play, not the single point between the current top three.
That race went to the wire, Chelsea pipping United to the title, 86 points to 85, after both won on the final day. Chelsea smashed Wigan 8-0 and United thrashed Stoke 4-0. Arsenal also won 4-0 but had fallen away by then and finished in third on 75 points.
So what’s going to happen this season?
First, the graphic below shows the respective run-ins. On this basis, Arsenal have the hardest run-in, with opponents currently with an average position in the league of 9.2, whereas City’s opponents average 9.5 and Liverpool’s average 10.1.
All three have five remaining home games and five away games. The devil is in the detail, however.
Four of Arsenal’s five home games are against teams currently in the bottom half, but their five away games are against teams currently, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th.
Arsenal’s five home games are against opponents with an average current league position below 12th, yet those away games are against opponents with an average position of sixth. That is why their run-in is objectively more difficult than those of their rivals.
Liverpool have just two away games against teams currently in the top 6, while City only have one remaining away game against a top-six side, Tottenham.
If you’re looking for a statistical prediction of where the title race goes from here, then the ‘supercomputer’ of the Premier League’s official stats provider, OPTA, is predicting another title for City. That would be their fourth consecutive title; no club in English football history has won four top-flight titles in a row.
That supercomputer takes account of performances to date and all the specific remaining fixtures. OPTA rate City as having a 45.9% chance of the title this season, down from 51.4% after the recent 1-1 draw at Liverpool. Liverpool in turn have a 35.3% chance, say OPTA, (down from 35.6%) while Arsenal have an 18.8% chance, up almost 6%, after beating Brentford 2-1 while their rivals drew at Anfield.
The betting markets largely concur with this, although the bookies’ odds give Arsenal more of a chance. I’ve taken the odds generally available for each club and turned those into a percentage chance of winning the title. They give City a 47.6% chance with Liverpool on 31.3% and Arsenal on 28.6%.
The game between City and Arsenal on Sunday March 31 is evidently of enormous significance, with Liverpool at home to Brighton the same day.
Against rival clubs in the current top five, City have yet to win a league match this season, losing away at Arsenal and Villa, drawing 1-1 twice with Liverpool and drawing 3-3 at home to Spurs. Here is the detail:
vs Arsenal Oct 8: Arsenal 1 Man City 0
vs Liverpool Nov 25: Man City 1 Liverpool 1 10 Mar: Liverpool 1 Man City 1
vs Tottenham Dec 3: Man City 3 Tottenham 3
vs A Villa Dec 6: Aston Villa 1 Man City 0
On the flip side, City’s Rodri appears to be fit and firing on all cylinders, and City have gone undefeated in the last 62 games in which he has played. This is the longest unbeaten run for a single player in English football history.
If you’re an omens person, and in search of some reason Arsenal might defy the odds to win a first title in 20 years, you can look to their form this calendar year.
They have won all eight Premier League games in 2024, scoring 33 times and conceding just four. They are only the fourth team in Premier League history to win their first eight league games of a calendar year. It was done by Manchester United in 2009, Liverpool in 2020 and Manchester City in 2021. And those three all went on to win the title.
Much will depend on which of the title contenders have their best players fit and available for the key run-in fixtures. According to OPTA’s current individual player rankings* (click here and then click on the “Season - player ranking” tab), City have six of the 100 best players in Europe’s Big 5 leagues this season, based on league performances. Rodri is No.1 in that list and Phil Foden No.4.
Arsenal have four players in the top 100 including Bukayo Saka at No.5 and Declan Rice at No.8. Liverpool have five players in the top 100, with the highest-placed currently Virgil van Dijk at No.29.
But who knows? This is football - anything can happen.
My hunch is that Arsenal will probably win all their remaining home games but have a harder time away and perhaps collect 20 points from their final 10 games.
I think, if their best players are all fit, that Liverpool and City could win as many as 26 points each from the final 30. At the start of the season I thought City would win the title, and I don’t think the OPTA and bookmaker optimism on their behalf is misplaced. I won’t be surprised to see Liverpool push them.
As a neutral, I hope it goes to the wire.
* Interested in how OPTA rank players across different positions? Click here and use the ‘Explainer’ tab on the right of the table