VAR needs to be binned (but it won't be). A two-horse PL title race. But first, a quiz...

Win prizes by attempting to predict what will happen in the world of sport this year. Then read the reasoning why VAR must go, and why the PL race is still far from certain

Happy new year, and welcome to the first Sporting Intelligence newsletter of 2025, which begins with a prediction game, where there are prizes to be won.

After that I’ll give you my considered view about the future of VAR.

I’ll also make an argument about the likely champions of the Premier League this season and explain how history suggests only two teams will be in contention by May.

Predicting 2025 in sport

Ten questions follow, asking you to predict events in sport in 2025. Please put your answers in the comments section.

If you’re not a paying subscriber you can enter for free by emailing answers to Nick AT Sportingintelligence DOT com, and put “2025 predictions” in the subject box. If you do this, you won’t get added to any mailing list, and won’t receive any spam. It’s literally just a way you can enter the comp without subscribing.

The deadline for entries is 15 January.

The reader with the most points will receive a £250 cash prize plus a free full subscription to this Substack for as long as it runs (priceless!), with the winner and two runners-up each receiving signed copies of my last book (review here) and my next book.

So to the quiz …

1: Which team will win each of the a) Premier League, b) La Liga, c) Serie A and d) the Bundesliga in 2024-25? (Four points available)

2: By how many points will Celtic win the Scottish title by in 2024-25 ahead of whichever team finishes in second? (Two points available for the exact correct prediction)

3: Which team will win a) the 2025 Champions League final and b) the inaugural 32-team Fifa Club World Cup? (Two points available)

4: When Manchester City’s “115” case verdict is finally reached, after all appeals are concluded, what do you think the outcome will be? (One point available)

• A: a verdict of complete innocence and no punishment of any kind

• B: a fine, probably for non-cooperation, but no points deductions

• C: point deductions but relatively minor and certainly not so many as to cause relegation

• D: huge points deductions that lead to relegation, or worse

5: Which of the following football managers will still be in their current jobs on the last day of 2025? State in or out for each of A-F. (Six points available)

• A: Ange Postecoglou at Spurs

• B: Ruben Amorim at Man Utd

• C: Pep Guardiola at Man City

• D: Thomas Tuchel as England manager

• E: Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid

• F: Luis Enrique at PSG

6: Will there be a positive drugs test in 2025 from any participant who partakes in any of the following events this year? State yes or no for each of A-H. (Eight points available)

• A: At any of the four tennis Grand Slam tournaments

• B: At any of the four golf Majors

• C: During the Tour de France

• D: At the women’s football Euros

• E: At the women’s rugby World Cup

• F: At the world athletics championships in Tokyo

• G: At FIFA’s new men’s Club World Cup

• H: For any man or woman finishing in the top three at the 2025 marathons in Tokyo, Boston, London, Berlin, Chicago or New York

7: Who will become the next president of the IOC?

There is a list of candidates here. Provide one name. (Three points available for the correct answer)

8: How many million people inside the USA will watch Super Bowl LIX (on 9 Feb, in New Orleans), live on TV (on average, figures according to Nielsen). (One point available)

• A: Fewer than 95m

• B: 96m to 105m

• C: 106m to 115m

• D: More than 115 million people

9: How many football matches will Donald Trump attend at this summer’s FIFA Club World Cup? (One point available)

• A: None

• B: One

• C: Two to four

• D: Five or more

10: Will any major sportsperson, while competing in Saudi Arabia in 2025, in any event funded by Saudi Arabia, be openly critical of any aspect of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record? (One point for yes or no being correct, three bonus points if you name someone who then does this).

• A: Yes (plus a name)

• B: No

VAR improving football? Nah - put it in the bin

I support technology in sport, including for assisting officials, whether that’s in cricket, tennis, football or whatever.

In principle, I was in favour of VAR in football and felt, once various issues had been ironed out, it would, on balance, be a good thing. (If we leave aside the fact it can’t and never will be applied to the majority of matches, only to the relatively few games globally that are played in the richest and most elite leagues that can afford it).

I also accepted there would be errors in decision-making because VAR officials are fallible too.

But it’s been a shambles, ruining the experience of fans, and leading to unintended consequences that are far from healthy, not least diminishing the authority - and, crucially, the confidence - of the on-pitch referees.

I suppose I’ve been prompted to write this particular item by a decision in Southampton’s last game, against Crystal Palace, when the Saints keeper, Aaron Ramsdale, was straight-armed off the ball by Palace’s Jean-Philippe Mateta (below) at a corner, and Saints conceded because of that.

It seemed a clear-cut foul to me and many others. With Ramsdale shoved out of the way, Palace scored. Opinions differ on this, and fair enough. You can see the footage yourself and make up your own mind.

This single incident is far from being the hill I’d die on, but it did get me thinking, and I’m more sure than ever that VAR, in England and Scotland at least, needs scrapping (it won’t be), or improving in major ways.

One of the big issues is quite how many errors, including huge errors, have been made by VAR officials; there were 31 last season. You’ll be able to cite lots of VAR errors in relation to your own team if you support a Premier League club. Goodness knows how many apologies Howard Webb has now issued, publicly or privately, for VAR screw-ups.

But another massive issue is the lack of clarity for fans in stadiums about what the hell is happening during any given incident. How can it be the case that supporters spending lots of money have absolutely no clue what is going on for minutes at a time in some situations?

You’ll have your own examples, but I’ll give you a niche example from 14 December. A madcap Scottish top-flight game that day between St Johnstone and St Mirren was settled 3-2 in the visitors’ favour in the 99th minute after VAR first awarded a penalty to St Mirren for handball. And St Mirren didn’t convert the penalty (saved).

St Johnstone fans were hugely relieved; they had already seen their team cede a 2-1 lead to be drawing 2-2, so losing 3-2 would have been terrible.

Then VAR intervened again, after a delay, to say the penalty was not legitimate (goalkeeper off his line) and needed to be retaken. Which it was, and St Mirren scored, and it was terrible result for St Johnstone after all, and nobody in the stadium had a bloody clue what was happening, or why, during multiple dying minutes.

We’ve discovered in recent days that a trial with better VAR communication in stadiums in the Carabao Cup in England will begin imminently. That’s pathetic, and far too late. Perhaps the powers-that-be should have thought about supporters who pay to come to games before introducing the system. But then when have fans ever been a priority?

I’m increasingly of the mind that VAR undermines the on-pitch officials, not least the referees.

Once you have a safety net, or believe you have a reliable safety net, your conviction in your own ability will inevitably soften.

Why make a call on something you think is probably right but you’re not sure about when you know someone else has replays from multiple angles and will be more right than you? (Except they won’t always be more right, as we’ve seen from multiple VAR screw-ups).

Then there’s the issue of an on-pitch ref knowing that a much more seasoned ref, on occasions, will be the VAR referee. If the VAR sends that lesser experienced on-pitch ref to the monitor, what does that do to the psychology of the lesser qualified on-pitch referee? It is vanishingly rare for a referee to be sent to the screen and keep his original decision.

Perhaps the single biggest issue is that waiting for a VAR thumbs-up or thumps down has sucked the joy out of the game.

The spontaneity of celebration is dead. That part of the game is gone.

Two-horse race for the Premier League

In the 32 completed seasons of the Premier League, the club who were top of the table at the close on play on 31 December each year have gone on to win the title 16 times, and have failed to win the title 16 times.

The devil is in the detail, however. The graphic and the explanation below suggest there are just two teams really in this season’s race, and while one is favourite, the other is not the clear outsider that many people think.